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As published by MSNBC.com:
Kerry poised for big weekend
Dean says Feb. 17 is a 'must win'
MSNBC staff and news service reports
Updated: 12:32 p.m. ET Feb. 05, 2004
With new polls showing Sen. John Kerry poised to win big in weekend voting in Michigan, Washington state, and Maine, Howard Dean has set his sights on Feb. 17, saying he will drop out of the race if he fails to win the Wisconsin primary that day.
In e-mail distributed in the early hours of Thursday, the former Vermont governor and onetime front-runner for the Democratic nomination wrote: “The entire race has come down to this: We must win Wisconsin. ... We will get a boost this weekend in Washington, Michigan, and Maine, but our true test will be the Wisconsin primary. A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2 and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race.”
Dean’s e-mail came as the latest MSNBC polling from Michigan showed Kerry with an overwhelming lead over other contenders. Kerry was poised to capture 47 percent of the vote in the Saturday caucuses there, and most if not all of Michigan’s 128 delegates, according to data from an MSNBC/Zogby Reuters poll released Thursday. His closest competition was Dean, garnering only 10 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to the poll, followed by Sen. John Edwards with 8 percent.
"I suppose anything can happen between tonight and Saturday, but it will be hard to stall this Kerry engine in the Motor City state,” said pollster John Zogby. “He has wide support from every sub-group. While the top issue is clearly the economy, electability is the major factor driving Kerry's lead. He by far and away trumps the other candidates in this category.”
In Washington state, where another 76 delegates are up for grabs in Saturday caucuses, independent Seattle pollster Stuart Elway’s latest figures show 40 percent of Democrats supporting Kerry, while 13 percent back Dean.
There are no public polls in Maine, where voting takes place Sunday for 24 more delegates, but strategists for all four campaigns said Kerry should win easily.
If the polls prove true and Kerry is able to win most of the weekend’s delegates, he’ll push far ahead in the race to the 2,162 needed to win the nomination at the party’s Boston convention in July. He now leads with 262, to 121 for Dean and 97 for Sen. John Edwards.
Dean tries to rally backers
Dean is trying to rally his supporters and raise money by casting Wisconsin as a last stand against the establishment candidates. His e-mail, which included a plea for a $100 contribution, resulted in $26,000 in online contributions between 8 and 9 a.m. Thursday, aides said.
Dean, once the front-runner with $41 million in campaign funds, has failed to win a single delegate contest since voting began with the Iowa caucuses Jan. 19. He finished a distant third in Iowa, behind John Kerry and John Edwards, and was runner-up to Kerry in the New Hampshire primary Jan. 27. He did not win any of the seven states that had caucuses or primaries Tuesday.
Dean and Kerry’s other major rivals for the nomination, Edwards and Wesley Clark, were fanning across the country Thursday in search of support in upcoming contests that can keep them competitive.
Dean earlier had vowed to remain in the race through March 2, the “Super Tuesday” election day featuring 10 contests for delegates. He has targeted Wisconsin’s Feb. 17 primary for an all-out effort to slow Kerry’s march toward the nomination, part of a long-shot strategy of winning delegates if not first place in the elections themselves.
Dean plans to campaign in Michigan, yet he has acknowledged that he probably can’t win there in Saturday’s caucuses.
Clark and Edwards skipped campaigning for the weekend contests in Michigan, Maine and Washington state, sticking instead to their Southern roots with plans to travel Thursday to states that vote on Tuesday. Clark is taking a bus tour of Tennessee, where 69 delegates will be chosen Tuesday, while Edwards is traveling from Memphis to Virginia, where another 82 are up for grabs on the same day.
Make-or-break state for Clark
While Clark campaign official Chris Lehane has said that Tennessee is a make-or-break state for his candidate, all the candidates are pointing to a showdown in Wisconsin. But the odds are with Kerry, who has the most money and allies.
“Without money, you can’t have the troops. Without troops, you can’t compete. How can you compete with a guy who can write himself a check for ads in California?” Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus said.
Clark, Edwards and Dean hope to rise out of Wisconsin as the only alternative to Kerry when the race turns to contests in California, New York and eight other “Super Tuesday” states.
Two officials close to Clark, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the retired Army general considered dropping out of the race Tuesday night after scoring a single victory, a nail-biter in Oklahoma. They said his wife, Gert, helped talk him into staying in the race against the advice of some backers.
In another sign of trouble, Clark’s staff agreed to a pay freeze to pay for television ads.
The hopes of Edwards, Clark and Dean hinged on two matters that were out of their control — Kerry’s future performance on the campaign trail and his past.
The special interest angle
While hoping he will slip up, foes also are pushing media reports about Massachusetts senator’s ties to special interests and lobbyists.
“If we’re going to have a president who’s not a Washington insider, who knows the changes that need to take place in Washington to change America, I need to be the president,” Edwards told CNN on Wednesday, the day after he won South Carolina to keep his candidacy alive.
Kerry won five states and the lion’s share of the delegates Tuesday, taking command of the race. Of the 269 delegates up for grabs, Kerry won 144, Edwards 66, Clark 50, Dean seven and Al Sharpton two. He earlier had won Iowa and New Hampshire, giving him seven victories in the nine contests held so far.
Dean suggested that “it’ll be more of the same” if Kerry replaces Bush in the White House. Clark criticized both Kerry and Edwards, faulting them for complaining about White House policies that they had backed in the Senate.
Confident of victory, Kerry opted not to advertise in the weekend states, though he will travel to them. Dean had no choice; he is short on money and is saving his resources for Wisconsin. And yet, to the dismay of his senior advisers, Dean raised expectations Wednesday.
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