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As published by MSNBC.com:
Wisconsin poll projects blowout win for Kerry
Pre-debate survey has him with double support of Dean, Edwards
MSNBC staff and news service reports
Updated: 9:25 a.m. ET Feb. 16, 2004
MILWAUKEE, Wisc. - Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry looks set for another blowout win, this time in Wisconsin on Tuesday, leading nearest rival Howard Dean by 24 points, according to an opinion poll released Monday by MSNBC, Reuters and Zogby.
Kerry, riding a wave of momentum that has carried him to 14 wins in the first 16 Democratic contests, most by huge margins, leads Dean 47 percent to 23 percent in the Wisconsin survey. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is third with 20 percent.
“Kerry goes into the primary with a commanding lead,” pollster John Zogby said, noting likely voters give the Massachusetts senator the highest favorable ratings and the best chance to defeat President Bush in November.
The combined Dean and Edwards support in the poll does not match Kerry’s total, but Zogby said it was “interesting to see that Edwards and Dean together suggest a substantial non-Kerry vote. What would happen if Kerry were to face just one opponent?”
Undecided respondents who were leaning toward a candidate were factored into that candidate’s total. Without the leaners, the percentage of undecideds would have been 14 percent.
Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich registered support of 2 percent in the poll, with civil rights activist Al Sharpton at 1 percent.
The poll of 600 likely voters was taken on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and has a margin of error of 4 percent. It concluded before Sunday’s debate among the five remaining contenders for the Democratic nomination.
Debate atmosphere
In the debate, Kerry pledged to combat Republican attacks, while Dean and Edwards faced pressure to cede the nomination to the Democratic presidential front-runner.
“I’m ready for what they throw at me,” Kerry said of Republicans. “I’m prepared to stand up to any attack they come at me with.”
At the debate at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Edwards resisted Kerry’s suggestion that the nomination was wrapped up.
“No so fast, John Kerry,” he said. “We’re going to have an election here in Wisconsin this Tuesday and we got a whole group of primaries coming up, and I, for one, intend to fight with everything I’ve got for every one of those votes.”
More polite than pugilistic, Dean called Kerry “a fine person. And if he wins the nomination, I’m going to support him. But I intend to win the nomination.”
Dean, whose own advisers are urging him to abandon the fight if he loses Tuesday, passed up a chance to repeat his criticism of Kerry for accepting special interest money. Instead, the fallen front-runner seemed to defend Kerry against criticism from the White House.
“I think George Bush has some nerve attacking anybody on special interests,” Dean said.
A focus on Bush
Edwards also focused on Bush, not Kerry. “Certainly, the integrity and character of the president of the United States is at issue,” he said. “No question.”
The 90-minute debate was sponsored by Journal Communications, WTMJ-TV and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
At stake Tuesday are Wisconsin’s 72 delegates, and much more: The state may be the last, best battleground for Kerry’s rivals.
Dean, the former Vermont governor, said he won’t heed calls from his own campaign to end the nomination fight should he lose Wisconsin.
“We are not bowing out,” he told The Associated Press.
But Dean campaign chairman Steve Grossman told the Associated Press that with a loss Tuesday, Dean would seek to convert his grassroots network into a movement that helps expand the party and elect Kerry.
“When Howard Dean says he’s not going to quit, what he means is the battle to restore democracy and citizen participation is long-term and he’s not going to quit on that battle,” Grossman said.
Edwards, a rookie senator from North Carolina, is in a slightly better position to survive a defeat Tuesday.
While Dean is winless and running out of credibility, Edwards won his native South Carolina and has impressed Democrats with his polished, upbeat style.
After Wisconsin, March 2
After Wisconsin, the remaining candidates will focus on March 2 elections in California, New York, Ohio and seven other states. Edwards hopes Wisconsin voters will bounce Dean from the race, leaving him standing alone against Kerry.
The scenario presumes that Edwards would do well enough Tuesday to keep money flowing into his campaign, even as party donors and leaders rally behind Kerry.
He is relying on Kerry to stumble — with a major misstep, a scandal or a poor showing during a head-to-head race.
Republicans kept working on the assumption that Kerry would face Bush. GOP chairman Ed Gillespie accused Kerry of hypocrisy for voting in favor of Bush’s education and Iraq policies then railing against them as a candidate.
Kerry also backed Bush’s anti-terrorism package but now criticizes Attorney General John Ashcroft of using it to infringe on civil liberties. “I will change the Patriot Act,” he said Sunday.
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