1. San Francisco 49'ers: Aaron Rodgers, QB, California
Barring a last minute breakdown in contract negotiations Aaron Rodgers will indeed be the #1 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft and will be signed, sealed and delivered by the time the Draft begins, as I have said all along. What really made this come together in the end was that Rodgers grew up a fan of the team and wanted to play for them so he is willing to take a little less on the contract to get a deal done and make sure it happens. Also, the fact that he played in a pro style system in college and is better prepared to come in and start from day one worked heavily in his favor as well. Rodgers is the latest protégé of quarterback guru Jeff Tedford and other than his lack of ideal height (he is only 6-2) you will have a hard time finding much not to like about him. Rodgers possesses amazing accuracy, a great arm, top intelligence and a drive to succeed and at the very least he should be a very good pro signal caller. Also, as I mentioned Rodgers grew up in California as a fan of the 49'ers and his idol was Joe Montana so he knows what this franchise once was and what it could be again and will take a personal interest in helping to restore that luster. The only other real option here is Utah QB Alex Smith but Rodgers is clearly the leader now and since it doesn't look like they will get the big trade offer they were hoping for look for them to make the pick and Rodgers will be a Niner, who Mike Nolan said is "as polished as I've seen,". This is a great move for the team and will give them a player to rebuild their franchise around.
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2. Miami Dolphins: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
It's becoming more and more clear that one way or another the #2 overall pick in the draft is going to be Alex Smith, the question is to what team. Word out of Miami is that if they keep the pick the Dolphins will select Smith for themselves, but they are also in discussions with Tampa Bay about a possible trade in which the Bucs would come up and nab the Utah signal caller. Alex Smith saw his stock rise more than anyone this past season and is now a legitimate candidate to be the #1 overall pick. There are many who feel Smith could be the best player to come out of this Draft five years down the road and there is no denying his potential. He still needs to add some weight and there are concerns about his arm strength but he is very athletic, an accurate passer and as smart of a guy as you will find (he graduated from college in just two years). The other possible scenario for Miami here is to take Auburn RB Ronnie Brown, who would address their top area of need but by most accounts they can move down a little, accumulate some additional picks and still possibly land Brown later or in a worst-case scenario another premier running back prospect such as Cedric Benson or Cadillac Williams. That scenario would seem to be right in line with what Nick Saban wants to do because without a 2nd or 3rd round pick he is desperate to become more of a player on the first day since he knows this franchise is more than one player away. Whether he becomes a Dolphin or Buccaneer it appears to be a safe bet at this point that Smith will be the guy in this slot come draft day.
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3. Cleveland Browns: Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan
The Browns would love to get an enticing enough trade package to move down and may even be willing to drop quite a ways so this will definitely be a spot to watch, but if they are forced to make the selection here don't be surprised if they simply grab the highest rated player on their board. New General Manager Phil Savage came over from the Baltimore Ravens and while he was with them the franchise was known for its emphasis on value over need, using that philosophy to net them Jonathan Ogden, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs among others. In that scenario there is little doubt that Edwards brings the most bang for the buck with this pick because he is widely regarded to be the best talent in the draft. Edwards is the total package with the size, speed and leaping ability of a true #1 wide receiver and for those who aren't yet believers just check out the tapes of him as a senior against Michigan St. and then Texas in the Rose Bowl when he absolutely took over and dominated the game. If Alex Smith falls here he would be tempting because even though they traded for journeyman signal caller Trent Dilfer, who is a nice solution for now but isn't the long-term answer at quarterback. With Romeo Crennel at the helm defense has to be considered an option as well and the team is very weak in the front seven so names like Derrick Johnson, Antrel Rolle, Shawne Merriman, David Pollack, Marcus Spears and Demarcus Ware may all come into play as well, especially if they trade down a bit.
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4. Chicago Bears: Cedric Benson, RB, Texas
Playmakers on offense. That is what the Chicago Bears need in whatever form they come, whether it be a running back or wide receiver. There is still a solid chance they could go with Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams here but the free agent addition of Muhsin Muhammad makes that less of a concern and opens up more possibilities. Personally, I like Thomas Jones and felt he did a great job last season under adverse circumstances but in the end it isn't what I think but what the teams think and apparently they want to add a premier, workhorse running back with Cedric Benson being their top choice. In my opinion Benson is the one sure thing in this Draft and a guy who will be a top pro running back from day one of his rookie year. A powerful runner with excellent size and good speed he is a better version of Ricky Williams, without the baggage, and would give the Chicago offense a guy they can hang their hat on while keeping pressure off of young quarterback Rex Grossman. Like I said though, wide receiver is still an option here and no one could fault them for adding another top player to that group because they still need help but all indications are that running back is just as much a priority for them and adding a guy of Benson's caliber here would be a great decision while finally giving them the top rushing threat they have lacked in the Windy City since the days of Walter Payton and Neal Anderson. There has also been a lot of talk about Cadillac Williams here lately as well so keep an eye on that situation.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn
This is a spot that is creating major waves in draft circles because of all the speculation about the Bucs possibly moving up to #2 for a shot at Alex Smith, but whether this is Tampa or Miami choosing here the likely choice will be a running back. If a deal is reached and the Dolphins have this pick they will likely target Brown, who they are said to covet, while if the Dolphins nab Smith at #2 then the Bucs would likely be looking at Brown here as well. And finally, if Miami chooses Brown at #2 the Bucs would turn their attention to Cadillac Williams, who Gruden coached at the Senior Bowl and fell in love with. Confused? Ronnie Brown was overshadowed by Cadillac Williams at Auburn but in reality he is the best all-around running back in this Draft, with an excellent combination of size and speed while also excelling as a receiver out of the backfield. One final option for the Bucs here would be Mike Williams, who the team liked a year ago and probably would have taken over Michael Clayton. One way or another though look for this selection to be a runner regardless of which team is making the choice and if the Dolphins are able to trade down and still land Ronnie Brown at #5 it will have to be considered a stroke of genius and a great start to the Nick Saban era. Even if the Bucs can't get this trade done they are still in a pretty good situation in terms of being able to address their need at running back.
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6. Tennessee Titans: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami (FL)
General Manager Floyd Reese is already on the record as saying the team will try and get the best value it can at this spot, whether that be a wide receiver, running back, quarterback, offensive lineman, linebacker or cornerback. Well, in this instance need and value may come together in the form of Rolle, who is not only considered to be possibly the best defensive player in the draft but who would also address a glaring weakness. With both Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson gone there are some major holes outside in the secondary and adding a player of this caliber would go a long way towards patching them up. A big, physical playmaker in the secondary, Rolle is just as likely to be a force as a blitzer as he is to lock his man down in coverage (as he did in college when he shutdown both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald). Simply put, the guy is an impact player. The Titans have little or nothing beyond Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico so wideout is a major area of need as well so if Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams were still available they would receive serious consideration as well. The team is also very concerned about their offensive line situation with Fred Miller gone and Brad Hopkins maybe following in another year so they may be tempted to reach for Alex Barron here and they could even surprise and nab someone like Derrick Johnson or Cedric Benson, who they have shown a lot of interest in. In the end though with their current configuration of cornerbacks they might be hard-pressed to pass on a player like Rolle at this point.
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7. Minnesota Vikings (f/OAK): Mike Williams, WR, USC
After essentially trading Randy Moss for this pick you can bet the Vikings will be looking to make a splash and add a player who will help fans get over the loss of one of the most explosive offensive threats in league history. Moss had to go though because he just became too much of a cancer and I think it speaks volumes that even though he is on his way to being one of the most prolific wideouts in NFL history only two teams were interested in trading for him. As they say, there are no "Randy Moss's" on the New England Patriots. Right now Minnesota has to be hoping that either Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams falls into their laps here at #7 and in reality they might be wise to package some picks to move up a little and ensure they get the big, physical playmaker they need to team with rising star Nate Burleson. Williams has done everything right in the past couple of months and has solidified himself as a top 5-10 overall pick with his showings at the Scouting Combine and in his private workout, displaying tremendous character to go along with decent speed, excellent hands and very good route running ability. He may not run a 4.40 but other attributes such as height and leaping ability more than make up for that, making him a major weapon down the field and in the red zone. As it turns out not being allowed in last years Draft may actually have been a blessing in disguise because Williams will likely go much higher this year than he would have in 2004. If both wideouts are gone by this point Plan B could be running back like Cedric Benson or Cadillac Williams because Michael Bennett is injury-prone, Onterrio Smith is one positive drug test away from a year-long suspension and Mewelde Moore is a third down back.
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8. Arizona Cardinals: Pac-Man Jones, CB, West Virginia
Almost every mock draft you see will likely have a running back here but in reality Dennis Green might be content to address another need early and then grab a running back like J.J. Arrington in round two or that long rumored deal for Travis Henry may finally go through. The Cardinals have a major need in the secondary at cornerback and when looking at their roster it is plain to see that is where they are most lacking so don't be surprised to see them go that route with this selection. The team is said to love Antrel Rolle but with him off the board they opt for Jones, who doesn't have tremendous size but he plays much bigger than he is while also possessing amazing speed, athleticism and playmaking ability both on defense as well as a return man. The other guy who Arizona is said to really like is Utah QB Alex Smith and if he fell this far he would probably be the pick, although that is highly unlikely. A running back is still an option and odds are one of the big three will still be on the board here, but Green has consistently talked about the depth at that position which leads you to believe they feel they can get a quality player beyond the first round. Adding a top cornerback like Jones would do wonders for a developing young defense and combined with Darnell Dockett and Karlos Dansby he will give the team a player to build around at each defensive unit.
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9. Washington Redskins: Dan Cody, DE-OLB, Oklahoma
Prior to the season not many would have envisioned the Chargers picking this low but they were one of 2004's surprise teams and now they have two first round picks to bolster an already good young core group of players. As any team that runs a 3-4 knows you can never have enough good pass rushing outside linebackers so Cody would seem to be a good fit here, along with providing good value for the selection. A 'tweener who actually saw action with his hand down on the ground as well as standing up with the Sooners, Cody was an extremely productive pass rushing force throughout his career however questions about where he will play as a pro as well as concern over the situation where he quit football due to a bout with depression early on with Oklahoma leads to him falling a bit. The other main area of need for the Chargers would appear to be in the trenches along both the offensive and defensive lines. On offense the team could use an upgrade at tackle where journeyman Roman Oben and rookie Shane Olivea played well last season but could definitely be upgraded with someone like Khalif Barnes, while on defense Jacques Cesaire and Adrian Dingle are only average at best as defensive ends. Overall though this is a team that is in great shape due in large part to a very productive Draft a year ago and should be able to contend for many years to come due to their young core of talent on both sides of the ball. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10. Detroit Lions: Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas
After spending their last four #1 picks on offense it is time for Matt Millen to address the defensive side of the ball. At first glance you may not see linebacker as much of a need for the Lions but upon further examination it really isn't that much of a stretch. Boss Bailey is coming back from another major knee injury so his durability is very questionable while Teddy Lehman could ultimately find a home in the middle replacing the aging Earl Holmes. Widely considered one of the premier defensive playmakers in this Draft, Johnson has great size, speed and athleticism with the range to make plays from sideline-to-sideline. He has consistently been one of the top players in college football over the past four years. The other area they could address with this selection is defensive end where Cory Redding is only average at best so don't rule out names like David Pollack, Shawne Merriman, and Marcus Spears. With Stockar McDougle fleeing as a free agent offensive tackle is now a major concern as well so you have to at least consider a guy like Alex Barron if he is available here, although this may be a bit early. One of the leagues most exciting up and coming teams, Detroit is going to be fun to watch over the next few years as their young talent develops and they are not that far away from contending with a run at the NFC North title in 2005 not out of the question.
