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THE FUTURE OF BLOGS



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October 20, 2003

The future of blogs

David Weinberger makes 9 guesses about the future of blogs when they get really popular:

1. The word "blog" will expand to cover any linkable posting (a place) where a person gets to speak her mind more than once. If it's more permanent than IM, it'll be a blog.

I am not too sure about this one. I do agree that the term "blog" will broaden in the future - I just don't know if it will go as far as the description above. The line between "home page" and "blog" is already blurring however.

2. Group blogs will be at least as common as individual blogs. Most people don't have time to stoke the blogfires every day, but groups do.

I agree that group blogs will grow in popularity. In business, team blogs will become an important cornerstone of project and knowledge management. I also see family blogs taking off, especially with family that are geographically seperated. Instead of sending letters and email, family members will post text and photos to a site that the whole (extended) family can view.

3. The lines between blogs and discussions will blur. Contributing to a blog discussion requires less effort than creating your own and taking the initiative to come up with topics every day or so. The regular participants in a blog discussion will consider themselves to be blogging. (We see this beginning to happen in the comment boards of the Howard Dean blog.)

Definitely. I have put this in action on my Seinfeld Blog. I have included a Movable Type-powered discussion forum where visitors to the site can start their own discussion threads / blog entries. I also have an idea in the "comment blogging" space that I will save for another time...

4. The lines between email and blogs will blur. Already we can post to our blog via email. But at some point, maybe we'll be able to press a button on an email to post it to the Web, with the link sent automatically to everyone on the message's cc list, creating an instant blog site that grows as the thread grows. There's no technical barrier to this, of course, and the functionality already exists already almost and kind of, but it hasn't been presented to us as a type of blogging. Something like it will be, and the ecological niche between email and blogging will be quickly filled in.

Yes, an easy to use tool or gateway is all that is needed here for this to take off. Of course the blog spam issue will become even more important at that point.

5. Corollary: Closed circulation blogs will become as important as open blogs. Closed circulation lets blogs serve the function of cc lists.

I agree. The examples above of team and family blogs would likely be limited to smaller groups of readers.

6. Corollary: Many blogs will be event-based and time-limited. I.e., we'll have Leah's Graduation Blog that lasts for a month and the Class Trip to Shenandoah Blog that lasts for two weeks.

Absolutely. I recently created a wedding blog for this purpose and a honeymoon blog is planned.

7. Blogrolls and buddy lists will thoroughly merge somehow.

This and more IM-blog integration will be very cool. Make a blog "comment" via IM and other cool things will make blogging more "real-time".

8. The distinction between the big, high-traffic blogs and the rest of the world of blogging will be increasingly sharply etched. The "tail" will gain more and more value as the number of high-traffic blogs necessarily grows much more slowly. At some point, the "A-List" bloggers won't even seem like bloggers because what they're doing is so different from what the rest of us are doing. By analogy, when I receive some massive-circ email newsletter, I don't think of it as being like email I receive from a friend, even though both are using email transport. (This doesn't mean the high-traffic blogs will be of less intrinsic value. It does mean they'll be of less value relative to the increasing cumulative value of the lower-traffic blogs.)

This is hard to argue with. Clay Shirky's thoughts on this are also very interesting.

9. Blogs will be of increasing value to democracy.

I would replace "would be" with "are" - and yes, that value will continue to grow. Any tool or medium that empowers people to express and share their opinions is a good thing.

I will add a tenth, just to make a round number. This one is pretty obvious, but I think it will be a huge part of the future of blogs:

10. At least half of all personal blog entries will be made via mobile wireless devices. Photoblogging and "live coverage" of events will increase. And of course, when bandwidth permits, everyone and their dog can have their very own reality video blog.



Posted by Mark at October 20, 2003 10:57 PM

Conversation:

Posted by: Blaine Hilton at November 9, 2003 9:16 PM

I agree with many of your points. What I see as happening though is this is something that has been changing whole lives for awhile now, it is however just catching on to more of the "mainstream".

Posted by: Mark Thristan at November 12, 2003 11:32 AM

I wonder whether blogging software will just be considered as another form of CMS, and blogs as just another type of "website" in the future...?

Posted by: Mark Carey at November 12, 2003 11:46 AM

I agree, Mark. The line between blogging software and CMS is already blurring. I already use Movable Type for several web sites which don't really look like Blogs. The Blog Spam Database is a place where people can share information about known sources of spam. And while my Seinfeld Blog does include a blog, it also has quotes, videos, scripts, and a discussion forum - all powered by Movable Type.

Posted by: Dr BLT at January 17, 2007 4:52 PM

I believe that the future of blogging will become increasingly dependent on music, video and multi-media enhancements. Saying something is one thing. Music and the arts take that "something" and make it more interesting and entertaining. I'm looking forward to a blog future that is much more than words. I'm looking forward to a:

Future to Behold
Dr BLT
words and music by Dr BLT (c) 2007
http://www.drblt.net/music/future3.mp3

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Posted by: mohammad at April 18, 2012 3:48 PM

My Name Is
Mrs Walter Kerter, From USA, An X-Scam Victim and how i get back on my feet and be a personal business owner with cars and

landed properties…. This is to announce to the general public about a legitimate lender online.

HERE IS MY SUCCESS STORY:

I was in a critical search of a genuine loan lending company were i can obtain a loan of $150,000.00USD some lender’s that

Came to me sheep clothing i never know they where fraud until i was given the terms of their loan and i agreed eventually i

was scammed they scammed me of my hard earn money up to four lender’s that scammed me the sum of $32,000.00USD and i though

that all is over that there can never be any other genuine lender until my Husband’s Friend Mr. Garrett Lugard the general

manager of Cotsat and cotsat company told me that there is a genuine lender that he obtained a loan of 1.5 Million Dollars At

3% interest rate From that makes him own a private business and a house of his own he Referred me to a company Mr.Mohammad

Azad Loan Company ,E-mail:mohammadazad1960@hotmail.com ,Where he obtained the loan of ($1.1 million Dollars) i told them how

referred me to them i applied for a loan of $180,000.00USD after my application and i sent to them the useful information for

them to process my loan after 4hours i received a notification From their company that my loan has been approved and

processed in the next 4hours my loan of $180,000.00 Dollars was transferred into my account. And i promise them for coming to

my rescue i am going to spreed the good news to the entire world ABOUT MOHAMMAD LOAN COMPANY IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD.

And tell them, i
Mrs Walter Kerter, referred you to them and your wish will be fulfilled…

Mrs Walter Kerter,

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Posted by: mohammad at April 11, 2013 4:02 AM


Are you a business man or woman? Are you in any financial
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Posted by: mohammad at April 11, 2013 4:16 AM


Are you a business man or woman? Are you in any financial
stress or do you need funds to start up your own business? Do
you need loan to settle your debt or pay off your bills or
start a nice business?


Do you have a low credit score and you are finding it hard to
obtain a loan from local banks and other financial institutes?

Do you need a loan or funding for any reason such as:

a) Personal Loan, Business Expansion.
b) Business Start-up and Education.
c) Debt Consolidation.

We offer loan at low interest rate and with no credit check,
we offer Personal loan, debt consolidation loan, venture
capital, business loan, education loan, home loan or "loan for
any reason!".

Note:Any interested Applicants should get back to us via email for further
information on our loan program and with your informations:

Full name:
Sex:
Marital status:
Address:
Country:
City:
Amount:
Loan Duration:
Do You Speak English:



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